I’m tired of looking at Tri-B’s face, so let’s move on to other news of the day. Apparently, French President Francois Hollande has dissolved his government in order to shuffle the cabinet. Why? Because the Economics Minister, Monsieur Montebourg, told the truth: austerity policies are killing the economy of France, and frankly of the entire European Union. Heresy! He must go! But is it heresy?
Growth in the European Union for the past 5 years (yes, count them – 5 years) has been lackluster to actual deflation. Even Germany has not been spared this fate, in spite of their robust, low-wage model. One of the few countries in the EU that is doing semi-OK is Spain, because they couldn’t fall any farther. They have an astronomical unemployment rate, so they probably can get people to work for free, just to kill the boredom. That would certainly make your exports cost-effective, eh? Here’s a look at recent economic results (thanks to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard for the graphic).
There has been a real paucity of leadership in the EU lo these past five years. I suppose Angela Merkel is the closest thing to a leader, but for political reasons, she pretty much does the bidding of the pro-austerity infliction gang in her party and her country. Japan, if you’ll recall “got the memo”, and started devaluing the yen and their stock market went through the roof. The Euro is strong against other currencies, which is helping to fuel the fires of deflation. It’s the 1930’s all over again, without the leadership of one A. Hitler. He debased the mark, in an attempt to pay for reparation debt with toilet paper currency, and ran the German economy with an off-the-books economic sleight of hand that produced the war machine that nearly toppled the world. If an unemployed house painter could figure that out, how come the best minds in Europe find this baffling? I think I have the answer.
I suppose it’s human nature to say “just one more quarter in the slot machine and this thing will finally pay off.” Never mind that you’ve mortgaged the house and burned through the kids’ college fund to continue the slot game. Essentially, that is what the collective minds of the European Central Bank and the various turnstile-leadership members of France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece, Cyprus and Ireland have done. As previously mentioned, only Germany has barely kept her chin above water, but is currently sinking because of the limited trade between the countries. Great Britain, not a member of the EU but greatly affected by its policies, has pretended to embrace austerity, but figured out they needed to use quantitative easing about the same time Japan got the memo.
So what will come from all this? They’ll continue to tinker around the edges, never making much progress with improving things for their citizenry. And then – like as not – the ultimate economic solution will finally come to the fore – let’s declare war on someone – or on one of us – and crank up the deficit spending machine to pay for bullets. A recurring theme throughout history that Vlad the Impaler is certainly doing his best to stir up.
So, gentle readers, be prepared to see major conflict continue to occur throughout the remainder of this second decade of the new millenium. Ain’t life great?